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How will US-China diplomatic engagements regarding Taiwan change by mid-2025?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increase in high-level meetings • 25%
Formal talks at an international summit • 25%
Implementation of new communication channels • 25%
No significant increase in diplomatic engagements • 25%
Official statements from US or Chinese foreign ministries or major international diplomatic news sources.
Story
US Urges Restraint as China Conducts Military Drills Near Taiwan with PLA Bombers
May 27, 2024, 01:20 AM
The United States has expressed serious concerns over China's recent military activities near Taiwan, labeling them as provocations. The U.S. State Department has urged Beijing to exercise restraint and warned that using routine democratic transitions as a pretext for military actions risks escalation and undermines longstanding peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. This comes amid reports of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) conducting military exercises and releasing videos simulating an invasion of Taiwan, with PLA bombers and fighter jet formations loaded with live munitions.
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Formal defense treaty • 33%
Increased military support • 33%
Continued strategic ambiguity • 34%
Relations improve significantly • 33%
No significant change in relations • 33%
Relations deteriorate • 34%
Improvement • 33%
No change • 33%
Deterioration • 33%
Increase in sanctions • 25%
Increase in diplomacy • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Decrease in sanctions • 25%
Military drill • 33%
Economic sanctions • 33%
Diplomatic protest • 34%
Improved relations • 33%
Worsened relations • 33%
No significant change • 34%
US intervenes militarily • 33%
China takes military action • 33%
No significant military action • 34%
No conflict • 33%
Limited skirmishes • 33%
Full-scale conflict • 34%
