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Will international mediation occur over Taiwan by November 30?
5
PLA•Taiwan•Joint Sword•Taiwan Strait•Taiwan Island•Kinmen•Matsu•Wuqiu•Dongyin•Eastern Theater Command
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from the US Department of State, Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, or credible international news outlets
Story
China Conducts 'Punishment' Drills Around Taiwan After New President's Inauguration
May 23, 2024, 03:25 AM
The Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) has initiated large-scale military drills surrounding Taiwan, starting at 7:45 a.m. on Thursday. The exercises, named 'Joint Sword-2024A,' will continue for two days and involve multiple military branches, including the army, navy, air force, and rocket force. The drills are being conducted in the Taiwan Strait and the north, south, and east of Taiwan Island, as well as around the islands of Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, and Dongyin. The PLA's Eastern Theater Command stated that these exercises serve as a 'strong punishment' for 'separatist acts' by Taiwan independence forces and a stern warning against external interference. The drills come just days after the inauguration of Taiwan's new president, Lai Ching-te. In response, Taiwan has scrambled jets and put missile, naval, and land units on alert. The drills also involve mock attacks and heavily armed warplanes, seen as a direct response to the new president's speech.
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Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Scheduled meeting announced • 50%
No meeting announced • 50%
Economic sanctions against China • 33%
Increased military support for Taiwan • 33%
No significant action taken • 34%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increase in high-level meetings • 25%
Formal talks at an international summit • 25%
Implementation of new communication channels • 25%
No significant increase in diplomatic engagements • 25%
United Nations • 25%
ASEAN • 25%
International Maritime Organization • 25%
None • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Military drill • 33%
Economic sanctions • 33%
Diplomatic protest • 34%