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Initiation of peace talks following China's military drills by end of 2024
5
China•Taiwan•Eastern Theater Command•PLA•Taiwan Strait•Taiwan Island•Kinmen•Matsu•Wuqiu•Dongyin•Chinese
Resolution / Starting Odds
Direct talks between China and Taiwan • 25%
Mediated talks through another country or organization • 25%
No talks initiated • 25%
Informal backchannel talks • 25%
Official announcements from involved parties, major international news sources
Story
China Begins Joint Sword-2024A Military Drills Surrounding Taiwan from May 23 to 24
May 23, 2024, 12:44 AM
China has initiated extensive military drills surrounding Taiwan, involving the Eastern Theater Command of the People's Liberation Army (PLA). The exercises, named Joint Sword-2024A, began at 7:45 a.m. on Thursday, May 23, and are set to continue until Friday, May 24. The drills are being conducted in the Taiwan Strait, as well as the north, south, and east of Taiwan Island, and around the islands of Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, and Dongyin. These maneuvers come just days after Lai Ching-te was inaugurated as the new president of Taiwan. Chinese officials have stated that the drills serve as a 'strong punishment' for 'separatist acts' and a warning against interference from external forces. Taiwan's military has responded by deploying sea and air forces to ensure the island's defense.
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Increased tensions with direct conflicts • 25%
Negotiations initiated between China and Taiwan • 25%
UN-mediated peace talks • 25%
No change in the status quo • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increase in military tension • 33%
Status quo maintained • 34%
De-escalation of military activities • 33%
Further drills • 33%
No further action • 33%
Military conflict • 34%
Military drill • 33%
Economic sanctions • 33%
Diplomatic protest • 34%
Strengthening of domestic military capabilities • 25%
Seeking stronger international alliances • 25%
Internal political changes • 25%
No significant change in policy • 25%
US condemns the drills • 25%
EU calls for restraint • 25%
ASEAN issues a neutral statement • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
