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What will be the outcome of the Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon by December 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant reduction in Hezbollah attacks • 25%
No change in Hezbollah attacks • 25%
Increase in Hezbollah attacks • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Official statements from the Israeli government, Hezbollah, or verified reports from major news agencies (e.g., Reuters, BBC, Al Jazeera)
Story
Netanyahu Warns Hezbollah After Strikes, Hundreds Dead or Injured
Sep 22, 2024, 12:37 PM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has issued a stern warning to Hezbollah following recent escalations in Lebanon. In a video address, Netanyahu discussed the developments, highlighting that Israel has dealt Hezbollah a series of unprecedented blows in response to their rocket attacks on northern Israel. He emphasized that the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) conducted airstrikes and that the operations would continue until security is restored and northern residents can safely return home. Netanyahu stated, 'We will do everything necessary to restore security,' and warned that if Hezbollah has not understood the message, they soon will. The escalating exchanges of fire have left hundreds dead or injured on both sides of the border.
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Israel achieves significant military objectives • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Hezbollah gains ground • 25%
Peace negotiations initiated • 25%
Hezbollah's capabilities significantly reduced • 25%
Hezbollah's capabilities moderately reduced • 25%
Hezbollah's capabilities remain largely intact • 25%
Hezbollah's capabilities increased • 25%
Major military victory for Israel • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Major military victory for Hezbollah • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Significant weakening of Hezbollah • 25%
No significant impact on Hezbollah • 25%
Hezbollah retaliates with significant force • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Minimal damage reported • 25%
Moderate damage reported • 25%
Severe damage reported • 25%
Hezbollah leadership targeted • 25%
Hezbollah significantly weakened • 25%
Hezbollah maintains current strength • 25%
Hezbollah gains strength • 25%
Other • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
Continued occupation • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant Hezbollah infrastructure destroyed • 25%
Minimal damage to Hezbollah infrastructure • 25%
Civilian casualties reported • 25%
No significant outcomes reported • 25%
Minimal damage to Hezbollah • 25%
Moderate damage to Hezbollah • 25%
Significant damage to Hezbollah • 25%
Hezbollah infrastructure destroyed • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Continued low-level skirmishes • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Limited military operations • 25%
Hezbollah disarmament • 25%
Successful with minimal resistance • 25%
Successful with significant resistance • 25%
Unsuccessful and withdrawn • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Successful with minimal casualties • 25%
Successful with significant casualties • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Failure • 25%