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What will be the outcome of U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations by end of 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
New deal reached • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Talks collapsed • 25%
No negotiations initiated • 25%
Official statements from U.S. and Iranian governments, news reports
Story
Trump: Iran Cannot Have Nuclear Weapons, Seeks Success for Iran, We Do Not Seek to Harm Iran
Nov 5, 2024, 05:11 PM
Donald Trump has reiterated his stance regarding Iran's nuclear capabilities, stating that while he does not seek to harm the country, it cannot possess nuclear weapons. During recent remarks, Trump expressed a desire for Iran to be successful and emphasized that the U.S. does not aim for regime change. He highlighted the importance of preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear power, suggesting that a policy shift could potentially draw Iran away from China's influence. Trump's comments reflect ongoing concerns about nuclear proliferation and the geopolitical dynamics involving Iran, Russia, and China.
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Successful de-escalation • 25%
Continued tensions without resolution • 25%
Increased military confrontation • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Iran agrees to further restrictions • 25%
No change in current agreements • 25%
Iran withdraws from current agreements • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
New Deal Reached • 25%
Sanctions Imposed • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Iran agrees to new restrictions • 25%
Iran refuses further restrictions • 25%
Negotiations continue without resolution • 25%
Negotiations break down completely • 25%
Successful agreement • 25%
Stalemate with no agreement • 25%
Breakdown of talks • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Sanctions increased • 25%
Military action taken • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased sanctions imposed • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
New nuclear agreement • 25%
Continuation of current tensions • 25%
Escalation to military conflict • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Talks ongoing • 25%
Talks failed • 25%
No talks initiated • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Talks stall • 25%
Talks fail • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased inspections agreed • 25%
Sanctions reinstated • 25%
No change in current status • 25%
Other diplomatic agreement • 25%
Successful Agreement • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Negotiations Extended • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Talks break down • 25%
JCPOA reinstated • 25%
No significant progress • 25%