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What will be the outcome of international negotiations on Iran's nuclear program by end of 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Iran agrees to further restrictions • 25%
No change in current agreements • 25%
Iran withdraws from current agreements • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Reports from international diplomatic sources and news agencies
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CIA Director William Burns: U.S. Believes Iran Has Not Decided to Build Nuclear Weapon Despite Israeli Strikes on Hezbollah
Oct 11, 2024, 07:58 AM
U.S. intelligence officials, including CIA Director William Burns, have stated that there is no evidence Iran has decided to build a nuclear weapon. Despite recent strategic setbacks for Tehran, such as Israeli military actions against Hezbollah, the U.S. maintains that Iran has not reversed its 2003 decision to suspend its nuclear weaponization program. Officials emphasize that if Iran were to pursue nuclear weapons, it would likely be detectable by the U.S. and its allies. The assessment reflects ongoing vigilance regarding Iran's nuclear intentions, with officials closely monitoring the situation.
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New Deal Reached • 25%
Sanctions Imposed • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
New nuclear agreement • 25%
Continuation of current tensions • 25%
Escalation to military conflict • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
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Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Talks collapsed • 25%
No negotiations initiated • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased sanctions imposed • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Iran agrees to new restrictions • 25%
Iran refuses further restrictions • 25%
Negotiations continue without resolution • 25%
Negotiations break down completely • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Sanctions increased • 25%
Military action taken • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Talks stall • 25%
Talks fail • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased inspections agreed • 25%
Sanctions reinstated • 25%
No change in current status • 25%
Other diplomatic agreement • 25%
New Agreement Reached • 25%
Stalemate Continues • 25%
Negotiations Collapse • 25%
Military Escalation • 25%
Successful Agreement • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Negotiations Extended • 25%
Successful de-escalation • 25%
Continued tensions without resolution • 25%
Increased military confrontation • 25%
No significant change • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Negotiations failed • 25%
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Agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations continue without agreement • 25%
Talks break down • 25%
Other • 25%