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What will be the outcome of resumed nuclear talks between Iran and the U.S. by mid-2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
New agreement reached • 25%
Talks break down • 25%
JCPOA reinstated • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. State Department or Iranian government, major news outlets
Story
Iran's Supreme Leader Signals Possible Resumption of Nuclear Talks with U.S.
Aug 27, 2024, 11:26 AM
Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has indicated the possibility of resuming negotiations with the United States over Iran's nuclear program. Despite expressing skepticism about placing trust in Western nations, Khamenei stated there is no barrier to engaging with the 'enemy' when necessary. This development comes amid heightened regional tensions and signals a potential shift towards renewed diplomacy. Iran has also expressed that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is no longer sufficient, suggesting a desire for a new nuclear agreement. However, direct talks with the U.S. are not yet confirmed.
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Successful agreement • 25%
Stalemate with no agreement • 25%
Breakdown of talks • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Talks ongoing • 25%
Talks failed • 25%
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Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Talks collapsed • 25%
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Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased sanctions imposed • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Successful de-escalation • 25%
Continued tensions without resolution • 25%
Increased military confrontation • 25%
No significant change • 25%
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Talks rejected • 25%
No response by deadline • 25%
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New agreement reached • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Sanctions increased • 25%
Military action taken • 25%
Iran agrees to new restrictions • 25%
Iran refuses further restrictions • 25%
Negotiations continue without resolution • 25%
Negotiations break down completely • 25%
New nuclear agreement • 25%
Continuation of current tensions • 25%
Escalation to military conflict • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Successful resolution • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Escalation of tensions • 25%
No talks occur • 25%
New Deal Reached • 25%
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Other • 25%
Successful Agreement • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Negotiations Extended • 25%