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What will be the outcome of Iran's nuclear program negotiations by end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
New agreement reached • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Sanctions increased • 25%
Military action taken • 25%
Official announcements from involved countries or international organizations
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Iran Agrees to Stricter IAEA Monitoring at Fordow Amid Uranium Enrichment Surge
Dec 12, 2024, 12:59 PM
Iran has agreed to stricter monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) at its Fordow nuclear facility, following a significant increase in uranium enrichment activities. The IAEA, in a report seen by Reuters, discussed from December 9 to 11 the need to enhance the frequency and intensity of safeguards measures at Fordow and a nuclear material storage facility in Esfahan. Iran has consented to the agency's request to increase the frequency and intensity of safeguards implementation at Fordow, facilitating the execution of a strengthened safeguards approach. This development comes after Iran greatly accelerated uranium enrichment to near weapons-grade levels at Fordow, which is located deep within a mountain.
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Iran agrees to new restrictions • 25%
Iran refuses further restrictions • 25%
Negotiations continue without resolution • 25%
Negotiations break down completely • 25%
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Continuation of current tensions • 25%
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Iran scales back enrichment • 25%
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Other • 25%
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Iran complies with JCPOA limits • 25%
Iran expands nuclear program • 25%
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New Deal Reached • 25%
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Iran complies with nuclear deal terms • 25%
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No significant change • 25%