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What will be the outcome of U.S. diplomatic efforts regarding Lebanon pager explosions by end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful resolution • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements from the U.S. State Department or other government agencies
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U.S. State Dept: U.S. Not Involved in Lebanon Pager Explosions, Gathering Information - Press Briefing, Reuters
Sep 17, 2024, 05:53 PM
The U.S. State Department has stated that the United States was not involved in the recent pager explosions in Lebanon and was unaware of the incident in advance, according to a press briefing and Reuters. The department is currently gathering information about the attack and has not made an assessment regarding who might be responsible. The State Department emphasized the importance of seeking a diplomatic resolution to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. Additionally, the U.S. has expressed concern about potential escalation in the Middle East and urged Iran not to exploit the situation. It is too early to assess the impact of the pager attack on Gaza ceasefire talks.
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Successful mediation • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Israel held responsible • 25%
Another country held responsible • 25%
Internal actors held responsible • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
New peace talks initiated • 25%
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Military aid to Lebanon • 25%
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Investigation ongoing • 25%
Sanctions against Israel • 25%
Sanctions against Hezbollah • 25%
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Peace agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Conflict escalates • 25%
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No • 50%
Peace agreement • 25%
Increased sanctions on Hezbollah • 25%
Continued diplomatic talks • 25%
Other • 25%
Israel implicated • 25%
Hezbollah implicated • 25%
Other group implicated • 25%
No conclusive evidence • 25%
Sanctions against Israel • 25%
Sanctions against Hezbollah • 25%
Peace talks initiated • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Successful - No strikes on Beirut or southern suburbs • 25%
Partial success - Limited strikes on non-civilian infrastructure • 25%
Unsuccessful - Significant strikes on Beirut or southern suburbs • 25%
Other • 25%