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What will be the outcome of the U.S. diplomatic efforts regarding the Lebanon pager explosions by Dec 31, 2024?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful mediation • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements from the U.S. State Department or verified reports from major news agencies
Story
U.S. Denies Involvement in Lebanon Pager Explosions, Eight Dead, 2,750 Injured
Sep 17, 2024, 06:07 PM
The U.S. State Department has confirmed that the United States was not involved in the pager explosions in Lebanon and was not aware of the incident in advance. The explosions, which occurred on Tuesday, resulted in at least eight deaths and approximately 2,750 injuries, involved pagers used by Hezbollah members. The U.S. is currently gathering information about the incident and has stated that it does not have an assessment on who might be behind the attack. The State Department emphasized the importance of a diplomatic resolution to the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, according to Reuters.
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Successful resolution • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Strengthen relations with Israel • 25%
Weaken relations with Israel • 25%
Strengthen relations with Hezbollah • 25%
Weaken relations with Hezbollah • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Successful ceasefire • 25%
Partial reduction in hostilities • 25%
No change • 25%
Increased hostilities • 25%
New peace talks initiated • 25%
Sanctions imposed on Israel • 25%
Military aid to Lebanon • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Taiwanese company responsible • 25%
Hungarian company responsible • 25%
Other country/company responsible • 25%
No definitive conclusion • 25%
Sanctions against Israel • 25%
Sanctions against Hezbollah • 25%
Peace talks initiated • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Israel held responsible • 25%
Another country held responsible • 25%
Internal actors held responsible • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Identified and arrested • 25%
Identified but not arrested • 25%
Not identified • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
Hezbollah • 25%
Israel • 25%
Iran • 25%
Other • 25%
Israel implicated • 25%
Hezbollah implicated • 25%
Other group implicated • 25%
No conclusive evidence • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Increased sanctions on Hezbollah • 25%
Continued diplomatic talks • 25%
Other • 25%