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What will be the outcome of the U.S. diplomatic efforts in response to the Israeli airstrikes on Beirut by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
New peace talks initiated • 25%
Sanctions imposed on Israel • 25%
Military aid to Lebanon • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. government or major news outlets
Story
White House Unaware of Israeli Airstrikes on Beirut; Children Died
Sep 20, 2024, 02:15 PM
White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby stated that the U.S. was not informed in advance about Israel's airstrikes on Beirut. The strikes targeted a senior Hezbollah official. A senior Israeli official confirmed that Israel did not notify the U.S. prior to the attack but briefed senior American officials immediately afterward. The White House reiterated its belief in a diplomatic solution in the Middle East. Kirby also noted there were no leaks, and reports indicated that children died in the attack.
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Successful ceasefire • 25%
Partial reduction in hostilities • 25%
No change • 25%
Increased hostilities • 25%
Successful - No strikes on Beirut or southern suburbs • 25%
Partial success - Limited strikes on non-civilian infrastructure • 25%
Unsuccessful - Significant strikes on Beirut or southern suburbs • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued military operations • 25%
Withdrawal of forces • 25%
Other • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Conflict escalates • 25%
Successful mediation • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Israel refrains from striking • 25%
Israel conducts limited strikes • 25%
Israel conducts full-scale strikes • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Direct negotiations • 25%
Increased hostilities • 25%
Mediation by third party • 25%
No diplomatic efforts • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued hostilities • 25%
Peace talks initiated • 25%
No significant diplomatic progress • 25%
UN Security Council Resolution • 25%
Sanctions on Israel • 25%
Diplomatic Negotiations • 25%
No Significant Actions • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Continued hostilities • 25%
Other diplomatic resolutions • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Conflict escalates • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Successful ceasefire • 25%
Temporary truce • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Other • 25%