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What will be the outcome of the UN investigation into the Lebanon pager and walkie-talkie bombings by end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Israel implicated • 25%
Hezbollah implicated • 25%
Other group implicated • 25%
No conclusive evidence • 25%
Official UN investigation report, credible international news sources
Story
Israeli President Denies Involvement in Lebanon Pager and Walkie-Talkie Bombings
Sep 22, 2024, 12:32 PM
Israeli President Isaac Herzog has denied Israel's involvement in the recent deadly pager and walkie-talkie bombings in Lebanon. In multiple statements, Herzog emphasized that Israel does not seek war with Lebanon and attributed the instability to Hezbollah, which he described as a terrorist organization backed by Iran. Herzog reiterated that Israel has no connection to the explosions and pointed out that Hezbollah has many enemies. The Israeli Permanent Representative to the United Nations also refused to admit any Israeli involvement in the attacks.
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Identified and arrested • 25%
Identified but not arrested • 25%
Not identified • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
Israel held responsible • 25%
Another country held responsible • 25%
Internal actors held responsible • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Taiwanese company responsible • 25%
Hungarian company responsible • 25%
Other country/company responsible • 25%
No definitive conclusion • 25%
Sanctions against Taiwan • 25%
Sanctions against Hungary • 25%
Joint sanctions against Taiwan and Hungary • 25%
No sanctions • 25%
Gold Apollo found responsible • 25%
European manufacturer found responsible • 25%
Another entity found responsible • 25%
No entity found responsible • 25%
Condemnation of Israel • 25%
Call for independent investigation • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Other • 25%
Hezbollah confirmed responsible • 25%
Another group confirmed responsible • 25%
Inconclusive results • 25%
No investigation completed • 25%
Hezbollah • 25%
Israel • 25%
Iran • 25%
Other • 25%
Hezbollah confirmed as sole perpetrator • 25%
Hezbollah and another group involved • 25%
Attack attributed to another group • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
No wrongdoing found • 25%
Gold Apollo found responsible • 25%
Other Taiwanese firms found responsible • 25%
Foreign (non-Taiwanese) firms found responsible • 25%
Israel found at fault • 25%
UN found at fault • 25%
Both parties found at fault • 25%
No fault determined • 25%
Confirmed bribery • 25%
No evidence found • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Investigation not completed • 25%