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What will be the outcome of U.S. diplomatic efforts regarding Greenland by the end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased military presence • 25%
Formal acquisition negotiations • 25%
Economic agreements • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S., Danish, or Greenlandic governments
Story
U.S. Confirms No Military Increase in Greenland Before Trump's Jan. 20 Inauguration
Jan 9, 2025, 11:49 AM
The United States has no current plans to increase its military presence in Greenland, according to the U.S. Embassy in Copenhagen. This statement follows President-elect Donald Trump's renewed interest in acquiring the Arctic island, which he described as an 'absolute necessity' for U.S. control ahead of his Jan. 20 inauguration. Trump's comments sparked concern and surprise in Greenland, home to 57,000 people, and Copenhagen, with no ruling out of military or economic actions against Denmark to achieve this goal. The Pentagon also confirmed it has no plans to take Greenland by force, emphasizing ongoing national security concerns elsewhere. Greenland is crucial for the U.S. military, particularly for its ballistic missile early-warning system, with a permanent presence at the Pituffik air base. Denmark has expressed openness to dialogue with the U.S. to safeguard its Arctic interests amid increasing great power rivalry in the region, driven by melting ice and new sea lanes.
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Greenland agrees to negotiations • 25%
Greenland rejects negotiations • 25%
Denmark intervenes • 25%
No official outcome • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other diplomatic outcomes • 25%
Formal purchase proposal • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Greenland gains more autonomy • 25%
Denmark agrees to negotiations • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Denmark rejects the demand • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Denmark rejects offer • 25%
Greenland joins the U.S. • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Greenland gains more autonomy • 25%
Denmark rejects proposal • 25%
U.S. purchases Greenland • 25%
Denmark retains control without negotiations • 25%
US acquires Greenland • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Negotiations continue without resolution • 25%
Greenland is acquired by the US • 25%
Greenland remains under Danish control • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Denmark agrees to lease parts of Greenland to the US • 25%
Greenland acquisition successful • 25%
U.S. withdraws interest • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Greenland acquisition rejected • 25%
No negotiation attempt • 25%
Other diplomatic agreement • 25%
Negotiation attempt but unsuccessful • 25%
Successful negotiation for control • 25%
UN intervention • 25%
No significant developments • 25%
Formal negotiations initiated • 25%
Greenland reaffirms sovereignty • 25%
Successful acquisition • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No talks initiated • 25%
Talks initiated but no acquisition • 25%
Military Action • 25%
No Action • 25%
Diplomatic Agreement • 25%
Economic Coercion • 25%