Loading...
Market
What will be the diplomatic outcome of U.S. demand for Greenland by end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Denmark agrees to negotiations • 25%
Denmark rejects the demand • 25%
Greenland gains more autonomy • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Official statements from involved countries, United Nations, or news reports
Story
Trump Demands Greenland from Denmark for National Security, Citing Strategic Value Against China and Russia
Jan 7, 2025, 05:20 PM
President Donald Trump has stated that the United States needs Greenland for national security purposes, emphasizing its strategic value in countering threats from China and Russia. Trump questioned Denmark's legal right to Greenland, suggesting that if such a right exists, Denmark should relinquish it to protect the 'free world'. He also threatened to impose high tariffs on Denmark if they do not comply with his demands regarding Greenland.
View original story
Similar markets
Formal purchase proposal • 25%
Other diplomatic outcomes • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
No official outcome • 25%
Greenland agrees to negotiations • 25%
Greenland rejects negotiations • 25%
Denmark intervenes • 25%
Denmark rejects proposal • 25%
U.S. purchases Greenland • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Greenland gains more autonomy • 25%
Greenland holds referendum • 25%
No significant developments • 25%
Denmark agrees to negotiate • 25%
U.S. imposes tariffs • 25%
Greenland remains under Danish control • 25%
Greenland is acquired by the US • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Denmark agrees to lease parts of Greenland to the US • 25%
Successful acquisition • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No talks initiated • 25%
Talks initiated but no acquisition • 25%
US acquires Greenland • 25%
Denmark retains control without negotiations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Negotiations continue without resolution • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Denmark rejects offer • 25%
Greenland joins the U.S. • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Withdrawn by U.S. • 25%
Rejected by Denmark • 25%
No Proposal Made • 25%
Accepted by Denmark • 25%
Greenland acquisition successful • 25%
U.S. withdraws interest • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Greenland acquisition rejected • 25%
Greenland reaffirms sovereignty • 25%
No significant developments • 25%
Formal negotiations initiated • 25%
UN intervention • 25%
Successful negotiation for control • 25%
No negotiation attempt • 25%
Negotiation attempt but unsuccessful • 25%
Other diplomatic agreement • 25%