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What will be the outcome of US-Denmark relations over Greenland by the end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
US acquires Greenland • 25%
Negotiations continue without resolution • 25%
Denmark retains control without negotiations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the US or Danish governments, or major international news agencies
Story
Trump Threatens High Tariffs on Denmark for Greenland's National Security
Jan 7, 2025, 06:33 PM
President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose high tariffs on Denmark if it does not relinquish control of Greenland to the United States. Trump emphasized that Greenland is crucial for U.S. national security and the protection of the free world, citing the presence of Chinese and Russian ships in the region. He questioned whether Denmark has any legal right to Greenland, suggesting that if they do, they should give it up. Trump's comments come amid ongoing tensions over the strategic Arctic island, which he has previously expressed interest in acquiring.
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No significant change • 25%
Greenland gains more autonomy • 25%
Denmark rejects proposal • 25%
U.S. purchases Greenland • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Formal acquisition negotiations • 25%
Economic agreements • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Open to negotiations • 25%
Firm rejection • 25%
Encourages Greenlandic decision • 25%
Relations Unchanged • 25%
Relations Worsen • 25%
Relations Improve • 25%
No Official Comment • 25%
Formal negotiations initiated • 25%
No significant developments • 25%
UN intervention • 25%
Greenland reaffirms sovereignty • 25%
Other diplomatic outcomes • 25%
Formal purchase proposal • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Denmark agrees to negotiations • 25%
Denmark rejects the demand • 25%
Greenland gains more autonomy • 25%
Denmark intervenes • 25%
Greenland agrees to negotiations • 25%
Greenland rejects negotiations • 25%
No official outcome • 25%
Increased diplomatic engagement • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Military cooperation • 25%
Economic agreements • 25%
Strained relations • 25%
Unchanged relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Severed relations • 25%
Other diplomatic agreement • 25%
No negotiation attempt • 25%
Successful negotiation for control • 25%
Negotiation attempt but unsuccessful • 25%
Denmark agrees to lease parts of Greenland to the US • 25%
Greenland is acquired by the US • 25%
Greenland remains under Danish control • 25%
Other outcome • 25%