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What is the most likely U.S. action towards Greenland by mid-2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased military presence • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Economic incentives • 25%
No action • 25%
Official announcements or policy changes from the U.S. government
Story
U.S. Confirms No Military Increase in Greenland Before Trump's Jan. 20 Inauguration
Jan 9, 2025, 11:49 AM
The United States has no current plans to increase its military presence in Greenland, according to the U.S. Embassy in Copenhagen. This statement follows President-elect Donald Trump's renewed interest in acquiring the Arctic island, which he described as an 'absolute necessity' for U.S. control ahead of his Jan. 20 inauguration. Trump's comments sparked concern and surprise in Greenland, home to 57,000 people, and Copenhagen, with no ruling out of military or economic actions against Denmark to achieve this goal. The Pentagon also confirmed it has no plans to take Greenland by force, emphasizing ongoing national security concerns elsewhere. Greenland is crucial for the U.S. military, particularly for its ballistic missile early-warning system, with a permanent presence at the Pituffik air base. Denmark has expressed openness to dialogue with the U.S. to safeguard its Arctic interests amid increasing great power rivalry in the region, driven by melting ice and new sea lanes.
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Diplomatic Agreement • 25%
Military Action • 25%
Economic Coercion • 25%
No Action • 25%
Economic actions • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Military actions • 25%
UN intervention • 25%
Greenland reaffirms sovereignty • 25%
No significant developments • 25%
Formal negotiations initiated • 25%
Negotiation attempt but unsuccessful • 25%
No negotiation attempt • 25%
Successful negotiation for control • 25%
Other diplomatic agreement • 25%
Economic investments • 25%
Military presence increase • 25%
No significant actions • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Military Action • 25%
Economic Coercion • 25%
Diplomatic Negotiation • 25%
No Action • 25%
Economic incentives • 25%
No attempt made • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Military coercion • 25%
Greenland joins the U.S. • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Denmark rejects offer • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Denmark agrees to lease parts of Greenland to the US • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Greenland is acquired by the US • 25%
Greenland remains under Danish control • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Greenland acquisition successful • 25%
U.S. withdraws interest • 25%
Greenland acquisition rejected • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Greenland becomes U.S. territory • 25%
Greenland remains with Denmark • 25%
Negotiations start • 25%