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What will be the outcome of U.S. diplomatic efforts on the Panama Canal by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Panama agrees to U.S. demands • 25%
Negotiations continue without resolution • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official government announcements and international news coverage
Story
President-elect Trump Threatens to Reclaim Panama Canal Over China's Influence and Overcharges
Dec 22, 2024, 12:10 AM
President-elect Donald Trump announced that he may demand the return of the Panama Canal to the United States. Citing concerns over Panama overcharging U.S. ships and the risk of the canal falling into the 'wrong hands', Trump declared, 'We will demand that the Panama Canal be returned to the US.' He emphasized the canal's importance to U.S. commerce and national security, referencing China's growing influence in the region since the U.S. transferred control to Panama in 2000. He also alluded to the decision made under President Jimmy Carter to relinquish control of the canal.
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U.S. regains control • 25%
Panama retains control with fee reduction • 25%
Joint control agreement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Reclaim control • 25%
Increase military presence • 25%
Impose economic sanctions • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Military presence increase • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
No change • 25%
Other • 25%
Demand return of the canal • 25%
Negotiate lower fees • 25%
Increase tariffs on Panama • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Condemnation of U.S. • 25%
Support for U.S. • 25%
Call for negotiations • 25%
No significant reaction • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Negotiation with the US • 25%
Strengthening regional alliances • 25%
Seeking international arbitration • 25%
Increasing canal security • 25%
Strengthen ties with U.S. • 25%
Strengthen ties with China • 25%
Maintain neutrality • 25%
Seek other international partnerships • 25%
U.S. gains control of canal • 25%
Panama reduces fees • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%