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Market
US Action on Panama Canal by End of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Demand return of the canal • 25%
Negotiate lower fees • 25%
Increase tariffs on Panama • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Official U.S. government announcements and international diplomatic communications
Story
Trump Threatens to Reclaim Panama Canal Over 'Exorbitant Fees' and Chinese Influence
Dec 22, 2024, 11:58 AM
President-elect Donald Trump has announced that he may demand the return of the Panama Canal to the United States due to what he describes as "exorbitant fees" and "ridiculous tariffs" imposed on U.S. naval and merchant ships. Labeling the current charges a "complete rip-off," Trump criticized the 1977 treaty that transferred control of the canal to Panama as a mistake and referred to the canal as a "vital asset" for the U.S. He expressed concerns about growing Chinese influence over the strategic waterway and warned against letting it "fall into the wrong hands." Trump suggested that if conditions do not improve, the U.S. might retake control of the canal, invoking principles similar to the Monroe Doctrine.
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Reclaim control • 25%
Increase military presence • 25%
Impose economic sanctions • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Military presence increase • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
No change • 25%
Other • 25%
Panama agrees to U.S. demands • 25%
Negotiations continue without resolution • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
U.S. regains control • 25%
Panama retains control with fee reduction • 25%
Joint control agreement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Demand fee reduction • 25%
Reclaim canal • 25%
Negotiate new treaty • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Panama reduces tolls • 25%
US demands canal return • 25%
Increased US military presence • 25%
No significant change • 25%