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Outcome of U.S.-Panama canal negotiations by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
U.S. regains control • 25%
Panama retains control with fee reduction • 25%
Joint control agreement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Official statements from U.S. and Panamanian governments
Story
President-elect Trump Threatens to Reclaim Panama Canal Over "Exorbitant" Fees
Dec 22, 2024, 07:30 AM
President-elect Donald Trump has indicated that he may demand the return of the Panama Canal to the United States, citing "exorbitant prices and rates of passage" imposed on U.S. naval and merchant ships by Panama. He criticized the fees as a "complete rip-off" and warned that if Panama does not lower them, the U.S. should reclaim control of the strategic waterway. Trump also expressed concern that the canal could fall into "wrong hands," alluding to potential foreign control, and criticized the 1977 treaty under which President Jimmy Carter agreed to transfer control of the canal to Panama.
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Panama agrees to U.S. demands • 25%
Negotiations continue without resolution • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
No change • 25%
Other • 25%
U.S. gains control of canal • 25%
Panama reduces fees • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Military presence increase • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Demand return of the canal • 25%
Negotiate lower fees • 25%
Increase tariffs on Panama • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Reclaim control • 25%
Increase military presence • 25%
Impose economic sanctions • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Fees reduced • 25%
Fees remain unchanged • 25%
Fees increased • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Panama reduces tolls • 25%
US demands canal return • 25%
Increased US military presence • 25%
No significant change • 25%