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Will US take formal action on Panama Canal control by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official US government announcements, major news outlets
Story
Trump May Demand Return of Panama Canal Amid Concerns Over China's Influence
Dec 22, 2024, 12:37 AM
Former President Donald Trump announced that he may demand the return of the Panama Canal to the United States if Panama does not cease what he describes as overcharging US naval and merchant ships. In a statement posted on Truth Social on December 21, 2024, Trump accused Panama of charging "exorbitant prices and rates of passage" and warned that the canal should not fall into the "wrong hands." He stated, "We will demand that the Panama Canal be returned to the United States." Trump expressed concern over China's influence in the region, noting that China has increased its foothold in Panama since the canal was transferred to Panamanian control in 1999 under President Jimmy Carter's administration. He emphasized the importance of the Panama Canal for US commerce and national security and suggested that he may take back exclusive control of the canal during his second term.
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Reclaim control • 25%
Increase military presence • 25%
Impose economic sanctions • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Demand return of the canal • 25%
Negotiate lower fees • 25%
Increase tariffs on Panama • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Military presence increase • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Panama agrees to U.S. demands • 25%
Negotiations continue without resolution • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Demand fee reduction • 25%
Reclaim canal • 25%
Negotiate new treaty • 25%
No significant action • 25%
U.S. regains control • 25%
Panama retains control with fee reduction • 25%
Joint control agreement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
U.S. gains control • 25%
China gains control • 25%
Panama retains control • 25%
Other entity gains control • 25%