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What will be the outcome of the Turkish military buildup near Kobani by April 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Full-scale incursion • 25%
Limited military action • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Reports from major news agencies and official statements from Turkey and Kurdish forces
Story
Turkey Prepares for Large-Scale Incursion into Kobani, Targeting U.S.-Backed Kurdish Forces, U.S. Officials Warn
Dec 17, 2024, 06:28 AM
U.S. officials have raised alarms regarding Turkey's military buildup along the Syrian border, indicating preparations for a significant incursion into areas held by American-backed Kurdish forces. Reports suggest that Turkish troops, along with militia allies, are amassing near Kobani, a Kurdish-controlled city in northern Syria. The Wall Street Journal cites senior U.S. officials who express concern that Ankara's actions could lead to a large-scale offensive targeting the Kurdish forces, similar to previous incursions. The situation is further complicated by the breakdown of U.S.-mediated negotiations, which may have prompted Turkey to escalate its military posture. Kurdish officials are reportedly urging President-elect Donald Trump to intervene and prevent a potential invasion.
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Other • 25%
Military incursion into Kobani • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Continued standoff • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Turkey gains control of Kobani • 25%
Kurdish forces retain control • 25%
Stalemate with no clear control • 25%
Other significant international action • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
NATO issues a formal statement • 25%
UN condemns Turkey's actions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Diplomatic resolution achieved • 25%
Turkey attacks Kobane • 25%
Turkey retreats from threats • 25%
Successful operation with Turkish control • 25%
Stalemate with no significant gains • 25%
Operation leads to significant international backlash • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
No intervention • 25%
Failure to achieve goals • 25%
Success in preventing fragmentation • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Successful operation with significant Kurdish retreat • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing conflict • 25%
Operation called off or delayed indefinitely • 25%
Withdrawal of forces • 25%
Increased territorial control • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%