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What will be the outcome of the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire by the end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Hamas removed, war ends • 25%
Hamas remains, war continues • 25%
Hamas removed, war continues • 25%
Hamas remains, war ends • 25%
Official announcements from involved governments and international news agencies
Story
Biden Announces Second Phase of Gaza Ceasefire to Remove Hamas, End War Permanently
Jan 19, 2025, 04:23 PM
U.S. President Joe Biden announced that the second phase of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza, set to begin on the 16th day, will aim to remove Hamas from power and ensure a permanent end to the war. This phase will also include negotiations for the release of Israeli soldiers. Biden highlighted that the ceasefire, which he attributes to a major success of his administration, has led to the release of three Israeli hostages, Doron Steinbrecher, Emily Damari, and Romi Gonen. The ceasefire agreement, initially proposed by Biden in May, has now come into effect, with humanitarian aid entering Gaza. The next phase of negotiations will be handled by the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump.
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Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire ends with resumed hostilities • 25%
Permanent peace agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire collapses, conflict resumes • 25%
Permanent ceasefire agreed • 25%
Temporary extension of current ceasefire • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire not implemented • 25%
Partial hostage return • 25%
No hostages returned • 25%
All hostages returned • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Failed negotiations • 25%
Short-term ceasefire • 25%
Long-term ceasefire • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major violations • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major conflict • 25%
Agreement approved and implemented • 25%
Agreement approved but not implemented • 25%
Agreement not approved • 25%
Negotiations continue beyond deadline • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor incidents • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire is extended • 25%
Full agreement reached • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Talks collapse • 25%
Ceasefire delayed but commences • 25%
Ceasefire commences successfully • 25%
Partial implementation with issues • 25%
Ceasefire agreement collapses • 25%
Partial implementation with tensions • 25%
Sustained peace • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire ends without major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire ends with renewed conflict • 25%
Permanent peace agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Temporary ceasefire extension • 25%
Permanent ceasefire • 25%