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What will be the outcome of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire by March 2, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire ends with renewed conflict • 25%
Permanent peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire ends without major incidents • 25%
Official statements from involved governments or international mediators
Story
Israel Approves Ceasefire Deal With Hamas, Mediated by Qatar and U.S., to Release 33 Hostages and Hundreds of Detainees
Jan 17, 2025, 11:29 PM
Israel's Cabinet has approved a deal for a ceasefire in Gaza, marking a significant step toward ending the 15-month conflict with Hamas. The agreement, mediated by Qatar and the U.S., will commence on Sunday and is the second ceasefire achieved during the war. It includes the release of dozens of hostages held in Gaza and a pause in the fighting. The ceasefire will last for six weeks in its first phase, during which 33 hostages are expected to be freed. The deal also involves the release of hundreds of Palestinian detainees and aims to facilitate a surge in humanitarian aid to the devastated region.
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Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
Ceasefire holds with full compliance • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Hamas • 25%
Ceasefire breaks down completely • 25%
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Ceasefire with hostage release • 25%
Ceasefire without hostage release • 25%
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No ceasefire, hostages released • 25%
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