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What will be the outcome of negotiations by the Trump administration in the Gaza ceasefire by the end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful, ceasefire holds • 25%
Partially successful, limited progress • 25%
Unsuccessful, ceasefire collapses • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Official announcements from the Trump administration and involved parties
Story
Biden Announces Second Phase of Gaza Ceasefire to Remove Hamas, End War Permanently
Jan 19, 2025, 04:23 PM
U.S. President Joe Biden announced that the second phase of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza, set to begin on the 16th day, will aim to remove Hamas from power and ensure a permanent end to the war. This phase will also include negotiations for the release of Israeli soldiers. Biden highlighted that the ceasefire, which he attributes to a major success of his administration, has led to the release of three Israeli hostages, Doron Steinbrecher, Emily Damari, and Romi Gonen. The ceasefire agreement, initially proposed by Biden in May, has now come into effect, with humanitarian aid entering Gaza. The next phase of negotiations will be handled by the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump.
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Similar markets
No change • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire breaks • 25%
Partial ceasefire • 25%
Hostage release only • 25%
Ceasefire only • 25%
Neither • 25%
Both ceasefire and hostage release • 25%
Agreement approved and implemented • 25%
Negotiations continue beyond deadline • 25%
Agreement not approved • 25%
Agreement approved but not implemented • 25%
Major role • 25%
No role • 25%
Minor role • 25%
Role unclear • 25%
Partial Resolution • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Complete Resolution • 25%
No Progress • 25%
Full Ceasefire and Hostage Release • 25%
No Agreement Reached • 25%
Partial Ceasefire and Hostage Release • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Hostage deal only • 25%
Neither • 25%
Both hostage deal and ceasefire • 25%
Ceasefire only • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Talks collapse • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
Full agreement reached • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No ceasefire • 25%
Permanent ceasefire • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Temporary ceasefire • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Partial ceasefire with phased agreements • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire and hostages release agreed • 25%
Ceasefire only agreed • 25%