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Outcome of the first phase of Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement by February 1, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire commences successfully • 25%
Ceasefire delayed but commences • 25%
Ceasefire agreement collapses • 25%
Partial implementation with issues • 25%
Official announcements from Israeli government or Hamas, reputable news agencies
Story
Netanyahu Halts Gaza Ceasefire Until Hamas Provides List of 33 Hostages on Sunday
Jan 18, 2025, 06:16 PM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated that Israel will not proceed with a ceasefire in Gaza, set to begin on Sunday, until it receives a list of the 33 hostages to be released by Hamas in the first phase of the agreement. The ceasefire involves the release of hostages and prisoners from both sides, with 98 Israeli hostages to be exchanged for about 1,100 Palestinian prisoners. Netanyahu emphasized that Israel will not tolerate violations of the agreement and holds Hamas solely responsible for any breaches. He has also warned that Israel reserves the right to resume hostilities if the agreement is not adhered to in all its phases.
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Major violations occur • 25%
Ceasefire holds without violations • 25%
Minor violations occur • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Ceasefire not implemented • 25%
No hostages returned • 25%
All hostages returned • 25%
Partial hostage return • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Permanent ceasefire agreed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Temporary ceasefire agreed • 25%
Other • 25%
Unsuccessful • 25%
Fully successful • 25%
Extended or renegotiated • 25%
Partially successful • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Extended ceasefire • 25%
Negotiations continue • 25%
Sustained peace • 25%
Ceasefire broken, major conflict resumes • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire holds, no major conflict • 25%
Ceasefire broken, minor skirmishes • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major conflict • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major violations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Ceasefire agreement delayed • 25%
Ceasefire agreement finalized • 25%
Ceasefire agreement collapsed • 25%
Partial agreement with limited hostilities • 25%
Resumption of hostilities • 25%
Successful extension of ceasefire • 25%
Ceasefire ends with no agreement • 25%