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What will be the outcome of the second phase of the ceasefire by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire continues • 25%
Israel resumes fighting • 25%
Hostage agreement fulfilled • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the Israeli government or international news agencies
Story
Netanyahu: Biden and Trump Back Israel's Right to Resume Gaza Fighting if Second Phase Fails
Jan 18, 2025, 06:13 PM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has revealed that both former U.S. Presidents Joe Biden and Donald Trump have provided Israel with unequivocal guarantees to resume fighting in Gaza if negotiations for the second phase of the ceasefire and hostage agreement fail and Hamas does not meet Israel's security demands. Netanyahu shared this during a government meeting, emphasizing that the ceasefire is temporary and that Israel is committed to achieving all its war goals, including the return of all Israeli hostages and the destruction of Hamas. Trump has also assured Israel of the resumption of military supplies that were halted under Biden's administration, which Netanyahu stated is crucial for potential renewed fighting.
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Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire renegotiated • 25%
Ceasefire breaks • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Breakdown of negotiations • 25%
Extension of current ceasefire • 25%
Permanent ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire ends without extension • 25%
Permanent peace agreement • 25%
Renewed hostilities • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Hezbollah withdraws • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
New ceasefire agreement • 25%
Israel takes military action • 25%
Ceasefire approved • 25%
Ceasefire rejected • 25%
Ceasefire renegotiated • 25%
Stalemate continues • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Ceasefire talks continue without agreement • 25%
Ceasefire talks collapse • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire breakdown • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Agreement on extension • 25%
New terms negotiated • 25%
Hezbollah withdraws and disarms • 25%
Ceasefire agreement collapses • 25%
No withdrawal or disarmament • 25%
Partial withdrawal or disarmament • 25%
Failed implementation • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Partial implementation • 25%
Successful implementation • 25%
Agreement signed but not implemented • 25%
Agreement signed and implemented • 25%
Agreement delayed • 25%
Agreement not signed • 25%
Permanent peace agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire ends with resumed hostilities • 25%