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What will be the status of the ceasefire agreement conditions by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Hezbollah withdraws and disarms • 25%
Partial withdrawal or disarmament • 25%
No withdrawal or disarmament • 25%
Ceasefire agreement collapses • 25%
Official statements from the Israeli government, Lebanese government, or verified reports from international news agencies
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Israel Threatens Action if Hezbollah Does Not Withdraw to Litani River
Jan 5, 2025, 10:26 AM
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has warned that if Hezbollah does not withdraw from Southern Lebanon, there will be no agreement, and Israel will be forced to take action. Katz emphasized that Israel is committed to enforcing the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon without compromise. He stated that the first condition for the ceasefire agreement, established on November 27 following a two-month conflict, is the complete withdrawal of Hezbollah to north of the Litani River, the full disarmament, and the destruction of the group's infrastructure in the region by the Lebanese army, conditions which have not yet been met. Katz's remarks come amid ongoing accusations from both sides of violating the ceasefire, with Israel aiming to ensure the safe return of its northern residents to their homes.
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Israel takes military action • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
New ceasefire agreement • 25%
Hezbollah withdraws • 25%
Successful implementation • 25%
Failed implementation • 25%
Partial implementation • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Ceasefire breakdown • 25%
Agreement on extension • 25%
New terms negotiated • 25%
30 to 59 days • 25%
Less than 30 days • 25%
More than 60 days • 25%
Exactly 60 days • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Extended negotiations • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
