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What will be the outcome of the Qatar-mediated ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2025?
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Qatar•Israel•Hamas•Gaza•Donald Trump•Doha•Egypt•United States•Palestinian•Israeli Defense Forces•Joe Biden
Resolution / Starting Odds
Agreement signed and implemented • 25%
Agreement signed but not implemented • 25%
Agreement not signed • 25%
Agreement delayed • 25%
Official announcements from the Israeli government, Hamas, or Qatar and international news reports
Story
Israel and Hamas Near Qatar-Mediated Ceasefire Deal After Midnight Breakthrough in Doha
Jan 14, 2025, 10:20 AM
Qatar has handed Israel and Hamas a final draft of a ceasefire and hostage release agreement designed to end the 15-month war in Gaza, following a midnight breakthrough in negotiations attended by an envoy of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump in Doha. Talks are reportedly in their final stages, with Hamas accepting the draft agreement and Israel still weighing it. The negotiations, mediated by Qatar, Egypt, and the United States, propose the release of 33 hostages held by Hamas, comprising women, children, elderly individuals, and the ill, in exchange for approximately 1,000 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel, including minors and those with health issues. Reports suggest an exchange ratio of 30 Palestinian prisoners per civilian hostage and 50 for each female soldier. Israel estimates that most of the hostages are alive, though some may have died. The first phase of the ceasefire would last 42 days, during which hostages would be released according to a specified schedule. The agreement may also involve a phased withdrawal of Israeli Defense Forces from Gaza. U.S. President Joe Biden expressed optimism, stating that the parties are "on the brink" of a proposal coming to fruition and that efforts are underway to finalize the deal urgently. Mediator Qatar stated that the parties are at their "closest point" yet to sealing a deal, with an announcement possible very soon.
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Stalemate continues • 25%
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Hezbollah withdraws and disarms • 25%
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Ceasefire holds without violation • 25%
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Ceasefire and hostages release agreed • 25%
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