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What will be the outcome of the current ceasefire negotiation by March 17, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire approved • 25%
Ceasefire rejected • 25%
Ceasefire renegotiated • 25%
Stalemate continues • 25%
Official announcements from either party or mediators, reported by major news agencies
Story
Netanyahu Accuses Hamas of Backtracking on Ceasefire Deal, Creating Last-Minute Crisis
Jan 16, 2025, 08:43 AM
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office has accused Hamas of reneging on parts of the agreed-upon ceasefire deal, creating a last-minute crisis that is preventing a settlement and holding up approval of the ceasefire. As a result, Israel will not convene a Cabinet meeting to approve the deal until Hamas confirms its full agreement to all the terms. Netanyahu's office stated that Hamas is backtracking on explicit understandings reached with mediators and Israel, attempting to extort further concessions.
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New ceasefire agreement • 25%
Israel takes military action • 25%
Hezbollah withdraws • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Agreement on extension • 25%
Ceasefire breakdown • 25%
No significant change • 25%
New terms negotiated • 25%
Extension of current ceasefire • 25%
Breakdown of negotiations • 25%
Permanent ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Agreement delayed • 25%
Agreement not signed • 25%
Agreement signed and implemented • 25%
Agreement signed but not implemented • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Hostage negotiations fail • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire agreed, no hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire agreed and hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, no hostages released • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached but not implemented • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached and implemented • 25%
Successful implementation • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Failed implementation • 25%
Partial implementation • 25%
Ceasefire and hostages release agreed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire only agreed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial ceasefire with phased agreements • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement collapses • 25%
Hezbollah withdraws and disarms • 25%
No withdrawal or disarmament • 25%
Partial withdrawal or disarmament • 25%