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What will be the outcome of the Israeli military strategy in Gaza by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Hamas regime collapsed • 25%
Hamas regime weakened but not collapsed • 25%
No significant change in Hamas regime • 25%
Hamas strengthened • 25%
Reports from international organizations and news agencies
Story
Netanyahu Promises to Collapse Hamas and Return All Hostages, Ready to Use New Methods and Significant Force
Jan 18, 2025, 06:20 PM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to achieve all the objectives of the ongoing war, including the return of all hostages held in Gaza. In a statement to the media, Netanyahu emphasized Israel's commitment to collapsing the Hamas regime and ensuring that Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israeli citizens. He also stated that if Israel needs to return to fighting, it would do so using new methods and with significant force. This declaration comes as a ceasefire agreement with Hamas is set to take effect, marking a critical juncture in the conflict. Netanyahu has given full backing to return to war if negotiations prove futile, promising to employ new means and great force if necessary.
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Partial Israeli control • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Return to pre-October 7 status quo • 25%
Full Israeli control • 25%
No significant military action taken • 25%
Hostage deal reached, no military action • 25%
Partial defeat with ongoing conflict • 25%
Complete defeat of Hamas • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing conflict • 25%
Partial defeat with cease-fire • 25%
Hamas retains significant control • 25%
Complete defeat of Hamas • 25%
Full military control of Gaza • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire maintained • 25%
Partial military control of Gaza • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Renewed ceasefire agreement • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Continuation of current conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Significant reduction in Hamas infrastructure • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Continuation of current conflict levels • 25%
Significant reduction in hostilities • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Continued military escalation • 25%
Mediation talks ongoing • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial victory with ongoing conflicts • 25%
Stalemate with no clear victor • 25%
Significant setbacks for Israel • 25%
Complete victory over Iran and proxies • 25%
Short-term ceasefire • 25%
Failed negotiations • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Long-term ceasefire • 25%
Hamas significantly weakened • 25%
Increased hostilities • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Hamas retains capabilities • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Lasting peace agreement • 25%
Escalation • 25%