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What will be the future of the Israel-Hamas conflict by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Lasting peace agreement • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and official statements
Story
Netanyahu Announces Ceasefire and Prisoner-Swap Deal with Hamas to Release Gaza Hostages
Jan 17, 2025, 02:22 AM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that a deal has been reached with Hamas to release hostages held in the Gaza Strip. The agreement, which includes a ceasefire and a prisoner-swap, comes after last-minute snags in negotiation talks. Netanyahu's office confirmed that the negotiating team informed him of the agreement, and he will convene his security cabinet and government to approve the deal. The inclusion of a Gaza truce in the agreement represents a key development in the ongoing conflict.
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Continued ceasefire • 25%
Stable peace • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
New negotiations • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Peace negotiations • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Escalated conflict • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Continued military escalation • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Mediation talks ongoing • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Peace treaty • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Ceasefire is extended • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor incidents • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major incidents • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Hostage deal with no further conflict • 25%
Complete Israeli control • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Partial defeat with ongoing conflict • 25%
No significant military action taken • 25%
Hostage deal reached, no military action • 25%
Complete defeat of Hamas • 25%