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What will be the outcome of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire and hostage exchange by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Complete success • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Failure • 25%
Indeterminate • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and official statements from involved governments
Story
Israel and Hamas Agree Six-Week Ceasefire and Hostage Exchange Mediated by Qatar, Egypt, and US
Jan 15, 2025, 05:23 PM
Israel and Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire that will pause fighting in the Gaza Strip for six weeks and lead to the phased release of dozens of Israeli hostages held by Hamas in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel, according to multiple sources. The agreement was reportedly confirmed by President Joe Biden and comes after 15 months of war. Negotiations were mediated by Qatar, Egypt, and the United States, with Qatar's Prime Minister holding separate meetings with Hamas negotiators and Israeli officials in Doha. The ceasefire and hostage release are expected to commence shortly.
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Ceasefire only • 25%
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