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What will be the outcome of NATO's policy changes regarding Ukraine by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ukraine admitted to NATO • 25%
Ukraine offered a pathway to membership • 25%
No change in Ukraine's status • 25%
NATO membership talks initiated • 25%
Official NATO policy documents and public statements
Story
Biden Assures Putin in 2021: No NATO for Ukraine, No Tactical Nuclear Weapons
Jan 17, 2025, 10:58 AM
U.S. President Joe Biden has disclosed details of a conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin from 2021, where he assured Putin that Ukraine would not join NATO without significant changes to the alliance system, and that no tactical nuclear weapons would be placed in Ukraine. Biden emphasized that all nuclear weapons had been removed from Ukraine and that the country would not become part of NATO until such changes were made. Additionally, Biden stated that Putin was concerned about the potential deployment of new nuclear weapons in Ukraine, which could lead to immediate retaliation against Moscow. These assurances were part of Biden's efforts to address Putin's fears regarding Ukraine's military alignment and nuclear capabilities.
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Ukraine joins NATO • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ukraine remains outside NATO with increased cooperation • 25%
Ukraine receives no further NATO support • 25%
Increased aid to Ukraine • 25%
Reduced aid to Ukraine • 25%
Increased support for NATO • 25%
Withdrawal from NATO • 25%
No significant changes • 34%
Changes in defense commitments • 33%
Changes in membership criteria • 33%
Decreased aid and support • 25%
Complete cessation of aid • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased aid and support • 25%
Diplomatic resolution with Russia • 25%
Decreased involvement • 25%
Continued current support levels • 25%
Increased military involvement • 25%
Achieves NATO membership • 25%
Withdraws membership request • 25%
No change in status • 25%
Receives alternative guarantees • 25%
Membership delayed • 25%
Membership granted • 25%
No change • 25%
Membership denied • 25%
NATO accelerates membership • 25%
NATO maintains current stance • 25%
NATO delays membership • 25%
NATO withdraws offer • 25%
Membership granted • 25%
Membership delayed • 25%
Membership negotiations started • 25%
Membership rejected • 25%
Support for future membership • 25%
New security guarantees proposed • 25%
No change in status • 25%
Support for immediate membership • 25%
Compromise reached • 25%
Ukraine continues NATO ambitions • 25%
Ukraine abandons NATO ambitions • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Rejected by Ukraine • 25%
No new proposal made • 25%
Rejected by Russia • 25%
Accepted by all parties • 25%