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What will be the outcome of Ukraine's diplomatic efforts with NATO by December 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Achieves NATO membership • 25%
Receives alternative guarantees • 25%
No change in status • 25%
Withdraws membership request • 25%
Official announcements from Ukraine and NATO
Story
Ukraine Rejects NATO Alternatives on 30th Anniversary of Budapest Memorandum
Dec 3, 2024, 10:24 AM
On the 30th anniversary of the Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine has officially rejected any security guarantees short of full NATO membership, according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The ministry emphasized that only NATO membership can provide the necessary security to deter Russian aggression, highlighting the failure of the Budapest Memorandum to ensure Ukraine's safety. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha brought the document to NATO headquarters to underscore this point. Despite Ukraine's push for NATO membership, NATO foreign ministers are expected to rebuff Kyiv's request for progress on joining the alliance ahead of Donald Trump's return to the US presidency. Ukraine's stance is that NATO membership is the only 'real guarantee' for its security, and the country has urged NATO signatories, including the US and UK, to provide clear, binding security guarantees in light of Russia’s aggression.
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Membership granted • 25%
Membership negotiations started • 25%
Membership delayed • 25%
Membership rejected • 25%
Membership granted • 25%
Membership process started • 25%
No progress • 25%
Ukraine withdraws application • 25%
Increased support for Ukraine • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Reduction in support • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Membership granted • 25%
Membership application pending • 25%
Membership application rejected • 25%
No application • 25%
Formal application • 25%
Military cooperation • 25%
Withdrawal of request • 25%
Other action • 25%
Full NATO membership granted • 25%
Membership invitation extended • 25%
Security guarantees without NATO membership • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Full Member • 25%
Candidate Status • 25%
Pending • 25%
Rejected • 25%
Ukraine receives full membership • 25%
Membership invitation issued but not finalized • 25%
Membership negotiations ongoing • 25%
No progress on membership • 25%
Invited to join • 25%
Accession negotiations ongoing • 25%
No change in status • 25%
Other • 25%
Ukraine abandons NATO ambitions • 25%
Ukraine continues NATO ambitions • 25%
Compromise reached • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Ukraine joins NATO • 25%
Ukraine remains outside NATO with increased cooperation • 25%
Ukraine receives no further NATO support • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Bilateral Agreements • 25%
Military Exercises • 25%
Economic Incentives • 25%
None • 25%