Loading...
Market
What will be the outcome of NATO and Ukraine relations by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ukraine joins NATO • 25%
Ukraine remains outside NATO with increased cooperation • 25%
Ukraine receives no further NATO support • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official NATO and Ukrainian government announcements
Story
Trump Seeks 5% NATO Defense Spending Target, May Settle for 3.5%; Will Continue Ukraine Aid
Dec 20, 2024, 05:48 PM
President-elect Donald Trump intends to demand that NATO member states increase their defense spending to 5% of GDP, but may settle for 3.5%, according to reports citing discussions with European officials. Currently, only 23 of the alliance's 32 members meet the existing 2% spending target. Despite his previous stance on Ukraine, Trump's team has communicated that the new administration plans to continue providing military aid to Ukraine. Trump believes that Ukraine should not be granted NATO membership and seeks an immediate end to the conflict.
View original story
Similar markets
Continued current support levels • 25%
Increased military involvement • 25%
Decreased involvement • 25%
Diplomatic resolution with Russia • 25%
Complete cessation of aid • 25%
Increased aid and support • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Decreased aid and support • 25%
Receives alternative guarantees • 25%
Withdraws membership request • 25%
No change in status • 25%
Achieves NATO membership • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Membership denied • 25%
Membership delayed beyond 2025 • 25%
Membership granted by 2025 • 25%
No change • 25%
Membership denied • 25%
Membership delayed • 25%
Membership granted • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Ukraine abandons NATO ambitions • 25%
Ukraine continues NATO ambitions • 25%
Compromise reached • 25%
Other status • 25%
No progress • 25%
Official candidate status • 25%
Full NATO member • 25%
Membership granted • 25%
Membership rejected • 25%
Membership delayed • 25%
Membership negotiations started • 25%
Increased aid to Ukraine • 25%
Increased support for NATO • 25%
Withdrawal from NATO • 25%
Reduced aid to Ukraine • 25%
No clear position • 25%
Support Ukraine's membership • 25%
Propose alternative security measures • 25%
Oppose Ukraine's membership • 25%
No change in status • 25%
Support for future membership • 25%
Support for immediate membership • 25%
New security guarantees proposed • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Security guarantees without NATO membership • 25%
Membership invitation extended • 25%
Full NATO membership granted • 25%
Full Member • 25%
Candidate Status • 25%
Pending • 25%
Rejected • 25%