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What significant changes will NATO make regarding Ukraine's membership by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Changes in membership criteria • 33%
Changes in defense commitments • 33%
No significant changes • 34%
Official announcements from NATO
Story
Biden Assures Putin: No NATO for Ukraine Without Significant Changes, No Nuclear Weapons
Jan 17, 2025, 10:58 AM
U.S. President Joe Biden has revealed details of his discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin, stating that he assured Putin that Ukraine would not join NATO without significant changes to the alliance system, and that no nuclear weapons would be placed in Ukraine. Biden's comments were made in the context of a conversation from 2021, where he addressed Putin's concerns about the potential deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Biden emphasized that the U.S. had removed all nuclear weapons from Ukraine and would not reintroduce them, nor would Ukraine become a part of NATO until its system undergoes significant changes.
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NATO maintains current stance • 25%
NATO accelerates membership • 25%
NATO withdraws offer • 25%
NATO delays membership • 25%
Membership denied • 25%
No change • 25%
Membership granted • 25%
Membership delayed • 25%
Membership invitation issued but not finalized • 25%
Ukraine receives full membership • 25%
Membership negotiations ongoing • 25%
No progress on membership • 25%
No progress • 25%
Full NATO member • 25%
Official candidate status • 25%
Other status • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Security guarantees without NATO membership • 25%
Membership invitation extended • 25%
Full NATO membership granted • 25%
Candidate Status • 25%
Pending • 25%
Rejected • 25%
Full Member • 25%
NATO membership talks initiated • 25%
Ukraine admitted to NATO • 25%
Ukraine offered a pathway to membership • 25%
No change in Ukraine's status • 25%
Support Ukraine's membership • 25%
Propose alternative security measures • 25%
No clear position • 25%
Oppose Ukraine's membership • 25%
Majority in favor • 25%
Majority against • 25%
Evenly split • 25%
No official stance • 25%
Decision postponed • 25%
Invitation granted • 25%
Invitation denied • 25%
Other • 25%
Rejection of membership request • 25%
No official response • 25%
Alternative security guarantees offered • 25%
Formal invitation extended • 25%
Membership delayed beyond 2025 • 25%
Membership denied • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Membership granted by 2025 • 25%