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What will be the outcome of Assad's negotiations with the U.S. by the end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Remains in power • 25%
Agrees to exile • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements from the U.S. government or Syrian government, or credible news reports
Story
Assad Seeks U.S. Support, Offers to Cut Ties with Iran, Hezbollah Amid Opposition Pressure
Dec 7, 2024, 07:22 PM
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has reportedly reached out to the United States through back-channels in the United Arab Emirates, offering to sever all ties with Iran and Hezbollah. This proposal comes with the condition that the U.S. and Western countries assist Assad in remaining in power or ensuring his safe exit. Bloomberg reports, citing informed sources, that Assad is seeking an agreement that would either allow him to retain control over the remaining areas under his authority or secure his safe exile if necessary. The offer was made amidst increasing pressure from opposition forces entering Damascus, signaling Assad's desperation to negotiate a deal.
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Full agreement reached • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Military agreement • 25%
Economic agreement • 25%
Diplomatic discussions • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Assad returns to power • 25%
New regime established • 25%
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International intervention • 25%
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Assad remains in power • 25%
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Assad is exiled • 25%
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Successful transition • 25%
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Humanitarian aid agreement • 25%
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No significant outcome • 25%
Sanctions lifted, ties cut • 25%
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Sanctions maintained, ties maintained • 25%
In Russia under asylum • 25%
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Sanctions against Syria • 25%
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Other • 25%