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What will be the main reason for a breakdown of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire if it occurs before February 26, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Breach of terms by Israel • 25%
Breach of terms by Hamas • 25%
External interference • 25%
Internal political pressure • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and official statements from Israel and Hamas
Story
Israel and Hamas Agree to Six-Week Ceasefire to Exchange Dozens of Hostages and Palestinian Prisoners
Jan 15, 2025, 06:06 PM
Israel and Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire deal that will pause the war in Gaza for six weeks and lead to the release of dozens of hostages and Palestinian prisoners, according to mediators. The agreement, reached after months of negotiations, includes a plan to exchange Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners. Qatar has confirmed the deal between the two parties.
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Violation by Hamas • 25%
External interference • 25%
Violation by Israel • 25%
Other • 25%
New Israeli demands • 25%
Other • 25%
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Internal Palestinian disagreements • 25%
Mediation Challenges • 25%
Other • 25%
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Other outcome • 25%
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Other • 25%
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Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Disagreements over hostage release • 25%
Lack of international mediation • 25%
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Mediation Challenges • 25%
External Political Pressure • 25%
Internal Israeli Opposition • 25%