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What will be identified as the major obstacle in implementing the Israel-Hamas ceasefire by February 28, 2025?
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Israel•Hamas•Gaza•UN•António Guterres•Guterres•Egypt•Qatar•United States•Israeli•Isaac Herzog•Mirjana Spoljaric Egger
Resolution / Starting Odds
Political Disagreements • 25%
Security Issues • 25%
Humanitarian Concerns • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and statements from involved parties
Story
UN Welcomes Ceasefire and Hostage Release Deal in Gaza Set for January 19, Brokered by Egypt, Qatar, and USA
Jan 15, 2025, 07:26 PM
A ceasefire and hostage release deal has been reached between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, as announced by UN Secretary-General António Guterres. Guterres welcomed the agreement and commended the mediators—Egypt, Qatar, and the United States—for their efforts in brokering the deal. He emphasized the importance of all parties upholding their commitments to ensure the full implementation of the agreement. The ceasefire is set to begin on January 19, and it includes a prisoner and hostage exchange. Israeli President Isaac Herzog met with the President of the International Committee of the Red Cross, Mirjana Spoljaric Egger, to discuss preparations for the hostage transfer.
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Mediation Challenges • 25%
Hostage Release Issues • 25%
Ceasefire Terms • 25%
Other • 25%
International pressure • 25%
New Israeli demands • 25%
Internal Palestinian disagreements • 25%
Other • 25%
Breach of terms by Israel • 25%
Breach of terms by Hamas • 25%
External interference • 25%
Internal political pressure • 25%
External interference • 25%
Violation by Israel • 25%
Other • 25%
Violation by Hamas • 25%
Disagreements over hostage release • 25%
New Israeli conditions • 25%
Lack of international mediation • 25%
Other • 25%
Internal Israeli Opposition • 25%
External Political Pressure • 25%
Mediation Challenges • 25%
Hamas Demands • 25%
Other • 25%
Logistical challenges • 25%
Disagreements over prisoner release terms • 25%
Disagreements over hostage release terms • 25%
Security concerns • 25%
Humanitarian aid logistics • 25%
Economic issues • 25%
Political disagreements • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ceasefire without hostage release • 25%
Ceasefire with hostage release • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
Talks collapsed • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Full agreement reached • 25%
Political obstacles • 25%
Security concerns • 25%
Logistical issues • 25%
Other • 25%
U.S. pressure on Israel • 25%
Internal Hamas strategy • 25%
Lack of international pressure • 25%
Other reasons • 25%