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What will be the main financial impact on ByteDance due to TikTok ban by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant revenue loss • 25%
Minor revenue loss • 25%
Revenue remains stable • 25%
Revenue increases • 25%
Financial reports from ByteDance or major financial news outlets
Story
China Weighs Elon Musk, Xi's Approval for TikTok U.S. Sale Amid Ban
Jan 19, 2025, 03:59 AM
Chinese officials are reportedly considering a plan to allow Elon Musk to acquire TikTok's U.S. operations as a potential solution to prevent the app from being banned in the United States. The ban, which took effect following a U.S. Senate-passed law, requires TikTok's parent company ByteDance to sell its U.S. operations or face a complete prohibition. ByteDance, valued at $300 billion and founded in 2012, has challenged the legislation but was unsuccessful in overturning it. The ban has already removed TikTok from app stores in the U.S., cutting off access for approximately 170 million American users, which represent 11% of TikTok's global user base. The Chinese government sees Musk as a favorable option due to his perceived alignment with Chinese interests, and Xi Jinping's approval would be necessary for any sale. Musk has publicly opposed a TikTok ban, citing concerns over freedom of speech, but also pointed out the imbalance of TikTok being allowed in the U.S. while his platform, X, is banned in China. The ban is expected to significantly impact ByteDance's revenue, and discussions about Musk's potential acquisition remain ongoing. President Trump has suggested he might grant TikTok a 90-day extension to find a buyer.
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Revenue loss under $1 billion • 25%
Other • 25%
Revenue loss over $1 billion • 25%
Minimal impact • 25%
Users use VPNs to access TikTok • 25%
Other user behaviors • 25%
Users stop using TikTok • 25%
Significant user migration to competitors • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Mixed impact • 25%
Significant negative impact • 25%
Significant positive impact • 25%
Increase • 25%
Uncertain • 25%
No change • 25%
Decrease • 25%
Appeal the ban • 25%
Other • 25%
Sell TikTok US operations • 25%
Comply with the ban • 25%
Other • 25%
Divestment from TikTok • 25%
Legal challenge • 25%
Complete withdrawal from U.S. market • 25%
YouTube • 25%
Snapchat • 25%
Meta (Facebook) • 25%
Other • 25%
Sells TikTok U.S. operations • 25%
Wins legal challenge and resumes operations • 25%
Remains banned throughout 2025 • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Increase in Snapchat Users • 25%
No Significant Shift • 25%
Increase in Instagram Users • 25%
Increase in YouTube Shorts Users • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Significant decrease (>50%) • 25%
Moderate decrease (25-50%) • 25%
Minor decrease (<25%) • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Other impact • 25%
Revenue increase • 25%
Significant revenue loss • 25%
Ban Remains • 25%
Partial Operations Allowed • 25%
Other • 25%
Ban Lifted • 25%