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What will be the financial impact on TikTok creators and businesses if banned by January 19, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Revenue loss over $1 billion • 25%
Revenue loss under $1 billion • 25%
Minimal impact • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from major news outlets or statements from TikTok
Story
Supreme Court Likely to Uphold TikTok Ban; App Could Go Dark January 19, Impacting 170 Million Users
Jan 10, 2025, 10:40 PM
The US Supreme Court is poised to decide on a law passed by bipartisan majorities in Congress and signed by President Joe Biden in April, which would require TikTok to either divest from its Chinese parent company ByteDance or face a nationwide ban by January 19, 2025. During oral arguments, the justices appeared skeptical of TikTok's argument that the ban violates the First Amendment rights of its 170 million American users, citing national security concerns about potential manipulation and data access by the Chinese government. TikTok's lawyers have asked the court to delay the ban, warning that the app could "go dark" on January 19 and that creators and small businesses in the US could lose $1.3 billion in revenue and earnings in one month if the ban goes through. Content creators, small businesses, and influencers across the country are bracing for the potential impact on their livelihoods, with many uncertain about where to turn if the platform is shut down.
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Uncertain • 25%
Increase • 25%
Decrease • 25%
No change • 25%
No Significant Shift • 25%
Increase in Snapchat Users • 25%
Increase in YouTube Shorts Users • 25%
Increase in Instagram Users • 25%
Significant decrease (>50%) • 25%
Moderate decrease (25-50%) • 25%
Minor decrease (<25%) • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Protests or legal action by users • 25%
Other significant reactions • 25%
Minimal impact on user base • 25%
Significant migration to alternative platforms • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Data not available • 25%
Decrease in users • 25%
Increase in users • 25%
Ban is reversed by Trump • 25%
Ban is enforced • 25%
Ban is temporarily blocked by Supreme Court • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Decrease by over 50% • 25%
Decrease by less than 25% • 25%
Decrease by 25-50% • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Divest from ByteDance • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Comply with the ban • 25%
Challenge in court • 25%
Negotiate with U.S. government • 25%
Seek Supreme Court intervention • 25%
Comply with the ban • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Major migration to other platforms • 25%
Other response • 25%
Minimal impact, users adapt • 25%
Significant protests and public outcry • 25%
Other • 25%
Lemon8 restricted • 25%
Lemon8 unaffected • 25%
Lemon8 also banned • 25%
Continues under ByteDance • 25%
Other acquisition • 25%
Operations cease • 25%
Acquired by Project Liberty • 25%