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How will TikTok's U.S. user base change by February 28, 2025, following the Supreme Court ruling?
1
Resolution / Starting Odds
Decrease by over 50% • 25%
Decrease by 20-50% • 25%
Decrease by less than 20% • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Reports from TikTok and major news outlets on user statistics
Story
Supreme Court to Rule on TikTok Ban by Jan. 19 Amid National Security Debate
Jan 5, 2025, 05:19 AM
The U.S. Supreme Court is set to hear arguments on January 10 regarding a law that could lead to a nationwide ban on TikTok unless its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, divests its ownership. The U.S. government cites national security concerns as the primary reason for the potential ban, while TikTok and its allies argue that such a move violates the First Amendment. If the ban proceeds, TikTok estimates that small businesses could lose over $1 billion in revenue within a month, and creators could face nearly $300 million in lost earnings. With 170 million U.S. users, TikTok has been a vital tool for small businesses and creators, providing unique monetization opportunities and exposure through its algorithm. A Goldman Sachs report estimates the creator economy, partly fueled by TikTok, could be worth $480 billion by 2027. President-elect Donald Trump has requested a delay in the ban, which is set to take effect by January 19. The decision could disrupt the broader digital landscape, with rivals like Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts poised to benefit. However, creators and small businesses fear losing a critical platform for growth and engagement. If the ban is enforced, app stores and internet providers would be required to block TikTok, rendering the app unusable over time.
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No significant change • 25%
Increase in users • 25%
Other • 25%
Decrease in users • 25%
Other • 25%
No Change • 25%
Decrease • 25%
Increase • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease in users • 25%
Increase in users • 25%
Data not available • 25%
User base decreases • 25%
User base remains stable • 25%
User base increases • 25%
TikTok exits U.S. market • 25%
Less than 100 million • 25%
Over 170 million • 25%
150-170 million • 25%
100-150 million • 25%
Remains with ByteDance • 25%
Sold to U.S. company • 25%
Operational changes without sale • 25%
Banned in the U.S. • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
TikTok sold to U.S. buyer • 25%
TikTok continues operations without change • 25%
Operational with restrictions • 25%
Not operational • 25%
Fully operational • 25%
Under new ownership • 25%
Polarized • 25%
More favorable • 25%
Less favorable • 25%
Unchanged • 25%
Significant migration to alternative platforms • 25%
Other significant reactions • 25%
Protests or legal action by users • 25%
Minimal impact on user base • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Appeal Denied • 33%
Appeal Granted • 33%
Ban Upheld • 25%
Case Dismissed • 25%
Ban Overturned • 25%
No Ruling by Deadline • 34%
ByteDance sells TikTok's U.S. operations • 25%
TikTok wins appeal and continues operations • 25%
TikTok is banned from U.S. app stores • 25%
Other outcome • 25%