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What will be the outcome of Trump's request to delay the TikTok ban by January 19, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Granted • 25%
Denied • 25%
No decision by deadline • 25%
Withdrawn by Trump • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. government or Supreme Court regarding the delay request
Story
Supreme Court Likely to Uphold TikTok Ban by January 19 Unless ByteDance Divests, Affecting 170 Million Users
Jan 10, 2025, 06:35 PM
The U.S. Supreme Court appears likely to uphold a federal law that could ban TikTok in the United States starting January 19, unless the app's Chinese parent company, ByteDance, divests its ownership. During oral arguments, justices from both sides of the political spectrum expressed skepticism about TikTok's challenge to the law, which is based on First Amendment grounds. The justices seemed persuaded by the government's argument that national security concerns related to TikTok's ties to China override free speech considerations. Chief Justice John Roberts highlighted the main concern as TikTok's ownership by ByteDance, which is required to cooperate with Chinese intelligence operations. If the law is upheld, TikTok could 'go dark' on January 19, affecting its 170 million American users. However, President-elect Donald Trump, who has 14.7 million followers on the platform and will be inaugurated on January 20, has requested a delay to negotiate a 'political resolution.'
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Ban proceeds • 25%
Alternative resolution reached • 25%
No decision made • 25%
Ban delayed • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Ban remains in place • 33%
Ban is modified • 34%
Ban is repealed • 33%
Ban blocked • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Ban is enforced • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ban is temporarily blocked by Supreme Court • 25%
Ban is reversed by Trump • 25%
Ban upheld, TikTok banned • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Ban overturned, TikTok operations continue • 25%
Ban delayed, temporary reprieve • 25%
Ban upheld • 33%
Ban overturned • 33%
Partial ruling • 34%
Other outcome • 25%
Divestment blocked • 25%
Divestment proceeds • 25%
Divestment postponed • 25%
Negotiated settlement reached • 34%
Ban upheld • 33%
Ban paused • 33%
Appeal Granted • 25%
Ban overturned • 25%
Compromise reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
Appeal Denied • 25%
Case Dismissed • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Delay granted • 33%
Delay denied • 33%
Case dismissed • 34%