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What changes will occur in Nicaragua's domestic political landscape by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased authoritarian control • 25%
Emergence of significant opposition • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Political reforms towards democracy • 25%
Reports from Nicaraguan political analysts or international political news agencies
Story
Ortega and Murillo Gain Absolute Power in Nicaragua, Defy Sanctions with New Constitution
Nov 25, 2024, 06:30 PM
Nicaragua's President Daniel Ortega and his wife, Rosario Murillo, have solidified their control over the nation through a constitutional reform that elevates Murillo to the position of 'co-president' and grants the couple absolute power. The reform, approved by loyalist lawmakers, has raised concerns among UN human rights experts about the potential for unchecked control over the population. Additionally, the National Assembly passed a law nullifying foreign sanctions against Ortega, Murillo, their children, and 50 officials, compelling local banks to disregard these sanctions or face penalties, including fines, operation suspensions, or charges of treason. This legislative move, which will officially take effect with the new Constitution in January 2025, is seen as a challenge to the international financial system operating in Nicaragua.
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Strengthened Ortega's power • 25%
Increased political instability • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Improved political stability • 25%
Approved as proposed • 25%
Approved with modifications • 25%
Rejected • 25%
No decision by end of 2025 • 25%
Approved as proposed • 25%
Approved with modifications • 25%
Rejected • 25%
No decision by end of 2024 • 25%
Establish new embassies • 25%
Close existing embassies • 25%
Reassign current ambassadors • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Majority support • 25%
Majority opposition • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
Indifference • 25%
Widespread condemnation • 25%
General approval • 25%
Mixed responses • 25%
Largely ignored • 25%
Further punitive measures against political opponents • 25%
Reconciliation efforts with expelled prisoners • 25%
No significant actions • 25%
Other significant actions • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Diplomatic condemnation only • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Support from allies • 25%
Widespread condemnation • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
General acceptance • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Release more prisoners • 25%
Increase imprisonments • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Other • 25%