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What leadership changes will occur within HTS following recent advances by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Al-Jolani remains leader • 25%
Al-Jolani replaced • 25%
Leadership structure changes • 25%
No significant leadership changes • 25%
Reports from major news outlets such as Al Jazeera, BBC, and Reuters
Story
HTS Commander Claims 'The Future Is Ours' After Damascus Advance
Dec 8, 2024, 12:31 PM
Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the commander of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has declared that there is 'no room for retreat' and that his group is 'determined to continue the path started in 2011' in a statement read on Syrian state television. This statement follows a significant military advance by HTS forces on Damascus, marking a pivotal moment in the ongoing Syrian conflict. Al-Jolani emphasized that 'the future is ours,' signaling a strong resolve to achieve the goals of the revolution and not to stop until the rights of all Syrians are achieved. His message was broadcast across various media outlets, including Al Arabiya, Sky News Arabia, and Al Jazeera, underscoring the importance of this development in the Syrian civil war.
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Abu Mohammad al-Jolani remains leader • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Leadership under council • 25%
Other • 25%
Current leadership remains • 25%
Leadership change due to internal decision • 25%
Leadership change due to external pressure • 25%
Leadership change due to assassination • 25%
New HTS leader • 25%
New U.S. diplomatic leader • 25%
Both leaderships change • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%
Denounce terrorism • 25%
Reaffirm previous stance • 25%
No official stance change • 25%
Other statement • 25%
Leadership change • 25%
Policy shift • 25%
Both leadership and policy change • 25%
No change • 25%
Department of State official • 25%
Intelligence community official • 25%
Military official • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased engagement • 25%
Maintained current stance • 25%
Reduced engagement • 25%
Other policy change • 25%
President Ruto steps down • 25%
Top police officials resign • 25%
No significant leadership change • 25%
Government officials reshuffled • 25%
Significant territorial gains • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
HTS retreat • 25%
Peace negotiations • 25%
Formal alliance • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
No change in policy • 25%
Reinstatement of bounty • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
No significant response • 25%