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    Trump Announces U.S. Will Recognize Only Two Genders, Effective Immediately

    Trump Announces U.S. Will Recognize Only Two Genders, Effective Immediately

    Jan 20, 2025, 05:40 PM

    In his inauguration speech on January 20, 2025, President Donald Trump announced that the United States government will officially recognize only two genders—male and female. He stated that this policy takes effect immediately, rolling back transgender protections and ending the government's recognition of a third gender option in certain settings. "As of today, it will henceforth be the official policy of the United States government that there are only two genders: male and female," Trump said.

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    Any state government announces non-compliance with federal two-gender policy by end of 2025?

    Any state government announces non-compliance with federal two-gender policy by end of 2025?

    Donald Trump•United States•Trump
    Resolution / Starting Odds

    Yes • 50%

    No • 50%

    Official statements from state governments and news reports

    Federal court blocks Trump's two-gender recognition policy by June 30, 2025?

    Federal court blocks Trump's two-gender recognition policy by June 30, 2025?

    Donald Trump•United States•Trump
    Resolution / Starting Odds

    Yes • 50%

    No • 50%

    Publicly available court records and news reports

    U.S. Supreme Court agrees to hear a case on Trump's two-gender policy by end of 2025?

    U.S. Supreme Court agrees to hear a case on Trump's two-gender policy by end of 2025?

    Donald Trump•United States•Trump
    Resolution / Starting Odds

    No • 50%

    Yes • 50%

    Supreme Court docket and news reports

    Will a federal court issue an injunction against the two-gender policy by mid-2025?

    Will a federal court issue an injunction against the two-gender policy by mid-2025?

    Donald Trump•United States•Trump
    Resolution / Starting Odds

    No • 50%

    Yes • 50%

    Federal court rulings and legal news outlets

    Will a U.S. state refuse to comply with the federal two-gender policy by third quarter of 2025?

    Will a U.S. state refuse to comply with the federal two-gender policy by third quarter of 2025?

    Donald Trump•United States•Trump
    Resolution / Starting Odds

    No • 50%

    Yes • 50%

    Statements from state governments and news reports

    Will Congress pass legislation counteracting the two-gender policy by end of 2025?

    Will Congress pass legislation counteracting the two-gender policy by end of 2025?

    Donald Trump•United States•Trump
    Resolution / Starting Odds

    No • 50%

    Yes • 50%

    Official records from the U.S. Congress and announcements from the White House

    Impact on federal employment regulations by end of 2025 due to two-gender policy?

    Impact on federal employment regulations by end of 2025 due to two-gender policy?

    Donald Trump•United States•Trump
    Resolution / Starting Odds

    Policy unchanged • 25%

    Policy fully implemented • 25%

    Policy partially implemented • 25%

    Policy reversed • 25%

    Official announcements from the U.S. Department of Labor or other federal agencies

    International reaction to U.S. two-gender policy by mid-2025?

    International reaction to U.S. two-gender policy by mid-2025?

    Donald Trump•United States•Trump
    Resolution / Starting Odds

    Support by at least one country • 25%

    No significant international reaction • 25%

    Condemnation by UN • 25%

    Condemnation by EU • 25%

    Official statements from international organizations such as the UN or statements from foreign governments

    Public opinion on the two-gender policy by end of Q1 2025?

    Public opinion on the two-gender policy by end of Q1 2025?

    Donald Trump•United States•Trump
    Resolution / Starting Odds

    Evenly Split • 25%

    No Clear Majority • 25%

    Majority Support • 25%

    Majority Oppose • 25%

    Results from a major national poll such as Gallup or Pew Research Center

    What will be Congress's response to Trump's two-gender policy by end of 2025?

    What will be Congress's response to Trump's two-gender policy by end of 2025?

    Donald Trump•United States•Trump
    Resolution / Starting Odds

    No action taken • 25%

    Other • 25%

    Pass legislation reversing policy • 25%

    Introduce but not pass legislation • 25%

    Congressional records and news reports

    Which international organization will first condemn U.S. two-gender policy by end of 2025?

    Which international organization will first condemn U.S. two-gender policy by end of 2025?

    Donald Trump•United States•Trump
    Resolution / Starting Odds

    European Union • 25%

    United Nations • 25%

    Other • 25%

    Amnesty International • 25%

    Official statements from international organizations and news reports

    Which major U.S. city will first officially oppose the federal two-gender policy by end of 2025?

    Which major U.S. city will first officially oppose the federal two-gender policy by end of 2025?

    Donald Trump•United States•Trump
    Resolution / Starting Odds

    Chicago • 25%

    Other • 25%

    New York City • 25%

    Los Angeles • 25%

    Official statements from city governments and news reports