Market
Will a U.S. state refuse to comply with the federal two-gender policy by third quarter of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Statements from state governments and news reports
Story
Trump Announces U.S. Will Recognize Only Two Genders, Effective Immediately
Jan 20, 2025, 05:40 PM
In his inauguration speech on January 20, 2025, President Donald Trump announced that the United States government will officially recognize only two genders—male and female. He stated that this policy takes effect immediately, rolling back transgender protections and ending the government's recognition of a third gender option in certain settings. "As of today, it will henceforth be the official policy of the United States government that there are only two genders: male and female," Trump said.
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Similar markets
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Majority of states adopt similar policies • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Mixed responses • 25%
Majority of states oppose or challenge • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
0-5 States • 25%
11-15 States • 25%
More than 15 States • 25%
6-10 States • 25%
Legal challenge • 25%
Adopt similar policy • 25%
No action • 25%
Reject policy • 25%
6-10 States • 25%
11-20 States • 25%
More than 20 States • 25%
0-5 States • 25%
0-5 States • 25%
11-20 States • 25%
More than 20 States • 25%
6-10 States • 25%
Majority opposition • 25%
Majority support • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Mixed responses • 25%
Condemnation • 25%
Support • 25%
Neutral • 25%
No response • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Majority challenge • 33%
Mixed response • 34%
Majority implement • 33%