Market
Will Congress pass legislation counteracting the two-gender policy by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official records from the U.S. Congress and announcements from the White House
Story
Trump Announces U.S. Will Recognize Only Two Genders, Effective Immediately
Jan 20, 2025, 05:40 PM
In his inauguration speech on January 20, 2025, President Donald Trump announced that the United States government will officially recognize only two genders—male and female. He stated that this policy takes effect immediately, rolling back transgender protections and ending the government's recognition of a third gender option in certain settings. "As of today, it will henceforth be the official policy of the United States government that there are only two genders: male and female," Trump said.
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Similar markets
Legislative action to counter orders • 25%
Condemnation by both parties • 25%
No response • 25%
Condemnation by Democrats only • 25%
Increase in support • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease in support • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Postponed • 25%
Fails to pass • 25%
Tied vote • 25%
Passes with majority • 25%
No change • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant policy adaptation • 25%
Policy reversal • 25%