Market
Any state government announces non-compliance with federal two-gender policy by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from state governments and news reports
Story
Trump Announces U.S. Will Recognize Only Two Genders, Effective Immediately
Jan 20, 2025, 05:40 PM
In his inauguration speech on January 20, 2025, President Donald Trump announced that the United States government will officially recognize only two genders—male and female. He stated that this policy takes effect immediately, rolling back transgender protections and ending the government's recognition of a third gender option in certain settings. "As of today, it will henceforth be the official policy of the United States government that there are only two genders: male and female," Trump said.
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Similar markets
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Adopt similar policy • 25%
Reject policy • 25%
Legal challenge • 25%
No action • 25%
Majority of states adopt similar policies • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Mixed responses • 25%
Majority of states oppose or challenge • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
6-10 States • 25%
More than 20 States • 25%
11-20 States • 25%
0-5 States • 25%
Majority implement • 33%
Mixed response • 34%
Majority challenge • 33%
11-15 States • 25%
More than 15 States • 25%
0-5 States • 25%
6-10 States • 25%
Mixed responses • 25%
Majority support • 25%
Majority opposition • 25%
No significant response • 25%
More than 20 states • 25%
10 to 20 states • 25%
Fewer than 10 states • 25%
No states • 25%
6-10 States • 25%
0-5 States • 25%
11-20 States • 25%
More than 20 States • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Neutral • 25%
No response • 25%
Condemnation • 25%
Support • 25%