Market
What will be Congress's response to Trump's two-gender policy by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Pass legislation reversing policy • 25%
Introduce but not pass legislation • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Other • 25%
Congressional records and news reports
Story
Trump Announces U.S. Will Recognize Only Two Genders, Effective Immediately
Jan 20, 2025, 05:40 PM
In his inauguration speech on January 20, 2025, President Donald Trump announced that the United States government will officially recognize only two genders—male and female. He stated that this policy takes effect immediately, rolling back transgender protections and ending the government's recognition of a third gender option in certain settings. "As of today, it will henceforth be the official policy of the United States government that there are only two genders: male and female," Trump said.
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Similar markets
Condemnation by both parties • 25%
Legislative action to counter orders • 25%
No response • 25%
Condemnation by Democrats only • 25%
Strong Opposition • 25%
Strong Support • 25%
No Significant Response • 25%
Mixed Response • 25%
Neutral • 25%
No Response • 25%
Condemnation • 25%
Support • 25%
No Clear Opinion • 25%
Evenly Split • 25%
Majority Support • 25%
Majority Oppose • 25%
No response • 25%
Condemnation • 25%
Support • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Mixed • 25%
No Significant Reaction • 25%
Mostly Negative • 25%
Mostly Positive • 25%
Mixed responses • 25%
Majority of states adopt similar policies • 25%
Majority of states oppose or challenge • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Adopt similar policy • 25%
Reject policy • 25%
Legal challenge • 25%
No action • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Increase in support • 25%
Other • 25%
Decrease in support • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Mostly opposed • 25%
Other • 25%
Evenly split • 25%
Mostly supportive • 25%